ZJ'S Derby Dozen #6 + Pletcher & Baffert

Alright,

Rolling into the last week of January with so much movement in the Derby Dozen, it's like an earthquake shook up a snow globe and we're still waiting for the water to clear. I had to call this one ZJ's Derby Dozen + Pletcher & Baffert just so I could include the two biggest barns in North America, and because I don't see any of their current horses hitting the board in the Derby so they are all below #12, but keep trying boys.

Lots of prep races over the last two weeks have exposed some horses and strengthened the reputation of others. We have also seen what may be the best two 3 yr olds Todd Pletcher has, break their maidens at Gulfstream in recent weeks in Hartford & Constitution, but with over 100 years of Derby winning history against them, they would be better served not being on 'the Trail', instead gaining strength and confidence looking to assault the Grade 1 division in the summer.

So here we go - ZJ's Derby Dozen #6 + Pletcher and Baffert

1. TOP BILLING - this blue blooded son of Curlin rises to the top of the class with an ultra impressive last to first stomp in a first level allowance at Gulfstream. He got a wonderful education, took a ton of dirt in his face, tipped outside and flew past the field while being eased up through the final furlong. He looks like he is only 75% cranked and there is a lot more in his tank going forward when the waters get deeper.

2. HONOR CODE - stays at #2 while he is slowly getting his 3 yr old year started. Barn mate of the top selection should only improve with maturity and growth as he prepares for his 2014 debut.

3. CAIRO PRINCE - this flashy son of Pioneerofthe Nile stays at #3 even though he had the performance of the weekend crushing the competition in the Holy Bull stakes at Gulfstream Park. He did it with style and ease. My fear is he is running too fast too soon and may not be able to sustain his brilliance through the 1st Saturday in May. I hope he skips the Fountain of Youth and makes his final prep in the Florida Derby so they can keep his feet on the ground.

4. SHARED BELIEF - my origional #1 falls into the #4 spot for one reason, foot issues. He has missed his last two works and any hiccup on the Trail is detrimental. If he gets over this issue in the next 14 days, he still has a chance.

5. CANDY BOY - the 2nd son of Candy Ride residing in California is working very well for his next start. Eagerly anticipating his next race as to what a better timed ride might produce.

6. TAPITURE - this son of Tapit put in a powerful 1:13 breeze at the Fair Grounds for Steve Asmussen. Can't wait to see how the time off has helped his development.

7. GOLD HAWK - tossed in a clunker in his last start, but every start can't be electric or they will burn out. I still believe the son of Empire Maker will be just fine going forward.

8. CONQUEST TITAN - made a wonderful seasonal debut in the Holy Bull coming from last to get second behind a runaway winner. It was a good start to his season, has a great race over the Churchill strip, and could jump forward with giant strides in his next few starts.

9. WICKED STRONG - also made his seasonal debut in the Holy Bull. I knew he was using the race as a prep and wouldn't even be 70% cranked for it and I bet accordingly. He should be on his toes and ready for better for the Fountain of Youth.

10. STRONG MANDATE - son of Tiznow is training lights out at Oaklawn for his seasonal debut, looking forward to seeing what the coach has done to move him forward.

11. COOL SAMURAI - haven't seen much talk about him since he broke his maiden. If his trainer holds true to form, he will debut in June and race only three times in 2014. Here's hoping he is durable enough to follow in Giacomo's foot steps and get himself into the gate on Derby day.

12. MEXICOMA - this little son of Birdstone is training marvelously for Team Valor for his seasonal debut. I believe he's on target for the Fountain of Youth.

13. COMMISSIONER - the first Pletcher runner on the list and only cause he somehow got to the wire first against Top Billing in his seasonal debut. As we know, Pletcher will jam as many runners as he can into the gate Derby day, but I can count the 10 furlong G1 dirt winners he has on one hand. He's 1 for over 100 something with his Derby starters. Enough said.

14. UNCLE SIGH - this Gary Contessa trained son of Indian Charlie runs next weekend in the Withers Stake at Aqueduct. He is training up a storm for that engagement, hoping to see him take the next step.

15. ALMOST FAMOUS - he made his seasonal debut over the weekend in the Holy Bull and actually ran a very good race. He fought it out on the lead, put the other speed horses away, and still held for 4th. He should take a step forward and be tough to pass come the Fountain of Youth.

16. MIDNIGHT HAWK - the first runner for Thyroid Bob, er, Bo's Pet Bob, er Bite the Bullet Already Bob Baffert.  Has to improve many many lengths to be competitive, but with Bob's Vet's, anything is possible. By a sprinter, out of a sprinter, might need an act of God to win at 10 furlongs.

There we go, smug comments and all, ZJ's Derby Dozen #6.