ZJ's Kentucky Derby Dozen (#7) 2/24/14

Alright,

I'm back and blowing up the Derby Dozen. I was holding on to some horses but it's getting late in the prep season and they had to go. The division was focused last weekend after the runnings of The Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, The Risen Star at the Fair Grounds, and a two turn allowance race a few hours prior the the FOY at Gulfstream. There continues to be prep races every weekend, as The Gotham Stakes opens the serious racing in NY Saturday March 1st.

For this Derby Dozen, I have SIX new shooters claiming their stake on the list. The emphasis now is two turn efforts, most likely winning efforts, as the time is over for hoping a well bred winner of a sprint race can still jump up, but truth is, they're seriously behind the eight ball. As always, breeding and the visual appearance of a horse's stride plays a major role as well.

So if I have six new shooters, six had to come off the list. Starting with Shared Belief. I fully believe he is one of the most talented 3 yr olds of the crop. But as the old adage goes, "no foot, no horse". His foot issues have kept him away from working for almost two months. I believe his connections are no longer pointing for the Derby, at least they are reasonable people. Gold Hawk was dropped as he never took a step forward, running evenly in his last two efforts without even the whisper of a good finish. Commissioner is gone too. His clunker Saturday, albeit he was up against the grain on a speed favoring surface, was too bad to believe he will be able to regroup and win a prep for points then have another big effort in him for the Derby. Also dropped were Almost Famous, Midnight Hawk, and Havana. They would need giant steps forward to get points and like Commissioner, would need to have two super back to back races in order to win the Derby.

Some of the 'hot' horses now who I don't think have a chance and were not included are - Wildcat Red, General a Rod, Albano, Kobe's Back, Vicar's in Trouble, Vinceramos, and Samraat. Most of these horses are winning now, but will need to catch a bus to get 10 furlongs the first Saturday in May.

So, without further adieu, here is ZJ's Derby Dozen #7 ~

1. TOP BILLING - retains the status as top dog will a strong effort closing against the speed bias of Saturday's Gulfstream surface. He passed most in that race like they were tied to a post, except for the two speed horses rode the bias and stayed in front of him. Shug mentioned the Wood Memorial as possible for his final prep, which would be a fairer surface, not perfect, but not the speed strip he faced Saturday.

2. CAIRO PRINCE - moves up from #3 and all he did was sit and wait for the Florida Derby. After his scintillating win to start the year, I was hoping he'd skip the FOY and he did. Another brilliant effort should be forthcoming in four weeks.

3. CANDY BOY - moves up from #5 as he is now California best hope. Lots of people were dissing him, being a Candy Boy running on dirt, but he effortlessly powered past his rival once Stevens tipped him out. He galloped out like he had a lot of motor left. Onward and upward.

4. HONOR CODE - slips down from #2 as he like Shared Belief had foot/ankle issues. He has made it back to the track with two workouts so all is not lost with his Derby chances. He is a striking individual and is looking to get back his lost luster.

5. TAPITURE - he has been on my list ranked high since November, unlike most people, I believed his talent was true. He moved up to #5 off an impressive return to the races at Oaklawn. He was on his toes in the post parade and ran to those stunning looks. Highly anticipating his next race, if he takes another step forward, he will be a serious player for the Derby.

6. MEXIKOMA - another who was on my list since November, but rocketed up from #12 to this spot. He closed stoutly Saturday in that aforementioned GP allowance, and ran the fastest last quarter outside of the winner. He is already proven around two turns, plus I know for a fact he was only 75% cranked for that race and has much room to leap forward.

7. CONQUEST TITAN - up one spot this time, he also sat out the FOY after losing some weight after chasing Cairo Prince off the layoff. While it was originally concerning, he put in a very nice workout yesterday signaling his readiness and should return with another strong effort. I hope they reroute him to a track that can favor his late running style.

8. CALIFORNIA CHROME - (new) - first of the new shooters whose debut on the list is tardy. He exploded with a very impressive race last time, striding away powerfully winning around two turns on dirt. He fired a bullet 1:11 workout over the weekend, so he's still feeling his oats and a duplicate effort will not be out of the question.

9. CONSTITUTION -  (new) - he along with his stablemate Hartford might be two of the most talented colts in the entire crop, but with the curse of Apollo hanging around their necks, will be hard pressed to win the Derby. He is uber-talented, that is not in question. He won his two turn debut Saturday, beating Mexikoma and others flashing his speed. While I really don't think he can win the Derby under these circumstances, he can beat 12 of them home, so he has a place in the middle of the list.

10. INTENSE HOLIDAY - (new) - debuts off a two turn stakes win in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. He used every foot of their elongated stretch to get up by a head. I feel he is the start of the 2nd cut of prospects and would need two of the best efforts a horse can run to be a top contender.

11. TONALIST - (new) - this colt broke his maiden in a fashion that shouted distance and finisher. He ran 2nd to Constitution Saturday in his 3rd lifetime race. Might have to tools and teacher to get himself there, but all will have to be perfect without a daisy in his path.

12. STRONG MANDATE - I'm tussling with this one as he raced in his prep looking like he was woefully short, hence using the race as intended, a prep. But what bothers me is he has yet to win around two turns. Once he clears that hurdle, he may develop into the contender he's pretending to be now.

13. BAYERN - (new) - the only Baffert horse to make the list. He is staying in California which seems to be the only place Baffert can win now. But I'll pretend I'm from Missouri and make him 'show me' as I am not currently a believer.

14. COOL SAMURAI - still have a feeling he has the talent, but his ultra conservative trainer might not be the answer. His upcoming race in California will either enhance his reputation or he'll go back to the barn and start again sometime at Belmont Park in June.

15. UNCLE SIGH - I believe in this colt. He was trapped on the inside of his last race while under pressure every step of the way. It was a good learning experience for the young colt who returns Saturday in the Gotham Stakes with a new jockey in the boot, Corey Nakatani. He blistered a 46 4/5 work yesterday, so he's on his toes and ready to rumble.

16. HARPOON - (new) - so far, this colt is only using 65% of his talent and ability. His race in the Sam Davis was interesting. Trapped on the rail, looked hopelessly beaten, tipped out, roared home mising by a nose to his stable mate. If he actually figures out what racing is all about, he will be very dangerous.

17. WICKED STRONG - not completely giving up on him, but he plummets to the bottom of my list. He ran a much improved race Saturday, but may need to get off that Gulfstream surface to show his best. I feel he'll be rerouted to the Wood Memorial, where he is proven over the Aqueduct surface, and may throw his name back in the hat then.

There it is - ZJ's Derby Dozen #7 - Thoughts? Questions? Comments?