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Wednesday, March 12, 2014

ZJ's Kentucky Derby Dozen (#9) from 3/12/14

OK,

The chaff is now separating from the wheat as we get closer to the first Saturday in May. Lots of moving and shaking for this edition as injuries and illnesses knocked out the serious chances of quite a few.

Last weekend, we saw the Private Terms at Laurel, the Tampa Bay Derby from Tampa, and the San Felipe from Santa Anita. Just 90 minutes ago, we saw the return of Honor Code but he was far from the whole story in that race.

This weekend we have The Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park which drew some serious locals and some California pretenders.

Dropped this week totally were Wicked Strong, Cool Samurai, and Top Billing. We've trimmed the list slightly and only added two new runners, who will definitely cause a stir from my followers.

So here we go - ZJ's Derby Dozen #9

1. CAIRO PRINCE - elevates up one spot to #1. Has done absolutely nothing wrong this season and is on schedule for the Florida Derby.

2. CANDY BOY - grabs the #2 slot with the injury to Top Billing. He electric off the pace style is looking more and more like it will be the winning ticket in the Derby as some serious speed horses will surely be lined up in the field of 20.

3. CALIFORNIA CHROME - rockets into the #3 hole off a scintillating win over the weekend in the San Felipe. He beat the gate and never looked back. He's a fast running fool who doesn't need the lead to win.

4. HONOR CODE - made his seasonal debut today but was run off his feet by a cheetah. I'm sure with all the difficulties this season he was probably only 70% fit and will get what he needs when he more than likely returns in The Wood Memorial.

5. TAPITURE - highly anticipating his return in The Rebel. He's an exciting prospect for Asmussen.

6. INTENSE HOLIDAY - moves up the list out of attrition.  Hasn't done anything wrong and has the right late running style, but still needs to move forward to make his presence know in May.

7. KID CRUZ - (new) - very interesting background for this son of the long winded Lemon Drop Kid. He trailed by 25 lengths going into the far turn in the Private Terms, picked them up with every stride, tipped wide into the lane and just ran by them all like they were standing still.

Replay of the Private Terms

8. SAMRAAT - unbeaten at 5 for 5, has shown heart and determination beating Uncle Sigh last two. Proven around two turns, but the 10 furlongs is still a huge hurdle.

9. SOCIAL INCLUSION - (new) - this grand colt by Pioneerof The Nile exploded on to the scene breaking his maiden against a well regarded field, and did it in style. Today, he stretched out to two turns and was a tour de force winning by 10 lengths in track record time, leaving Honor Code in his wake. The Derby would be rushing him, but he is a seriously talented race horse.

10.  CONSTITUTION - another uber talented colt who is short on experience. Florida Derby is next.

11. STRONG MANDATE - needs a good effort Saturday in The Rebel, as he still is winless around two turns and needs to step up his game.

12. TONALIST - has only had one work since racing on Fountain of Youth day, distance will not be a problem, but fitness and beating winners might be too much of a jump before May.

13. UNCLE SIGH - two gut wrenching races in a row and didn't win either. Both were very good efforts, but needs to win the Wood Memorial to be a serious factor.

14. CONQUEST TITAN - seems to find trouble as he was checked along the rail with only managing 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby. Casse will be shipping him out of Florida for his final prep.

15. MEXIKOMA - had a lung infection and missed some time after his return on FOY day. Serious hurts his chances at winning the run for the roses.

That's it! ZJ Derby Dozen #9 for 3/12/14.

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